Global Oncology Market to hit $109 billion – Spotlight on Drug Life Cycle Management, M&A and Pipeline Strategies
- 18 drugs constitute ~75% of the global oncology market; one-third of these drugs are growing annually above 30%
- VEGF (Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor) is the mascot among top targets/pathways
Cancer, with a death toll exceeding that of AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome), tuberculosis and malaria collectively, accounted for 8.3 million deaths in 2013. With a skyrocketing incidence of 469.6 per 100,000 in the US alone, the oncology market is poised to grow at a substantial CAGR of around seven percent to $109 billion by 2020. Targeted therapy class is the ‘top dog’ among all therapy segments with nearly ~3x the combined market of cytotoxic and hormonal therapy. “Growth factors such as EGF (Epidermal Growth Factors) and VEGF govern around half of the oncology therapy market, and have changed the landscape of pipeline and LCM (Life Cycle Management) strategies, outstripping the orthodox indications approach,” said ABMRG’s analyst Hardik Sharma. Although in last two years, a plethora of targeted drugs has been launched and is in development, price pressures have started popping up due to high scrutiny from payers, physicians and governments.
F. Hoffmann-La Roche AG ($RHHBY), Novartis AG ($NVS) and Celgene Corporation ($CELG) are the top three players, collectively accounting for ~70% of the entire market, followed by Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN; LSE: AZN), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY) and Pfizer, Inc ($PFE). Other major players include Merck & Co. Inc. ($MRK), GlaxoSmithKline plc ($GSK), Eli Lilly and Company ($LLY), Bayer AG ($BAYN), Amgen ($AMGN), AbbVie ($ABBV), Sanofi S.A. ($SAN).
With almost every drug growing annually above 10%, Roche is the market leader and front-runner in life-cycle management of oncology drugs, as it holds the highest number of in-line extensions (ILEs), which comprise around half of its entire pipeline. The words of Roche CEO Severin Schwan—“We go where the science takes us”—demonstrates its focus on bolt-on acquisitions compared with a transformational approach. Celgene also shares the same philosophy as evident from its recent deal with OncoMed.
Novartis, which has the most robust oncology pipeline with multi-fold NMEs than Roche, has adopted multi-pronged—bolt-on and transformational—growth strategy. This is evident from its recent $90 million deal with Oxford Biomedica for boosting its cancer immunotherapy portfolio and the acquisition of complete oncology unit of GlaxoSmithKline plc.
“In an era of consolidation, where companies like Novartis acquired oncology business of GSK and Pfizer made endless attempts to buy out AstraZeneca, at least a couple of M&As in oncology space are expected in the short term by pharma juggernauts eying on the high-growth oncology market to overcome the ‘dried-up’ pipelines and looming patent expirations,” said ABMRG CEO Manoj Jiandani.
Avastin is the leader with sales of $6.7 billion in 2013 and in the short- to mid-term it is forecast to sustain its position supported by its extensive pipeline and entrenched indications base. Meanwhile, in the long term, Revlimid is expected to dominate due to its extensive pipeline, prolonged patent term and impressive CAGR of more than 40%.
Global cancer burden is expected to get nearly doubled to more than 21 million cases and 13 million deaths by 2030. Owing to high unmet needs, the oncology market would continue to grow at a moderate pace, driven by rising aging population, hopping incidence rates, expedited FDA approvals, booming urbanisation, enhanced diagnosis and rising adoption of combination therapies. Conversely, sky-high prices, limited reimbursement, high patient out-of-pocket costs and lack of screening and awareness in developing regions are the major restraints.
Although, cancer continues to be a major health challenge in the developed world, driven by modern lifestyle patterns, more than 60% of world’s new annual cases originate from Africa, Asia and Central and South America, which together account for nearly three-fourths of the world’s cancer deaths. Among developing economies, India, China and Russia account for ~40% of world’s population with around 2x the cancer mortality rates compared with that in the US and the UK.
Key Questions Answered:
- Which are the probable game-changers in terms of drug, therapy class and player?
- Which are the high-growth segments and expected potential targets/pathways?
- Which are the top 35 oncology drugs and leading market players globally?
- How did new drugs evolve into blockbusters and what are the strategies behind it?
- What is the estimated market size and market forecast?
- What are the major market drivers and restraints globally and in key geographies?
- How is the competitive outlook in terms of key products, pipeline and players?
- What are unmet needs and opportunities in the oncology market?